A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in academia but hardly any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. They composes two pieces that aim for impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has has valuable insights to learn from the alternative arguments."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
