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Only 48 hours prior to the NYC race for mayor, Michael Lange made a bold electoral prediction – not just the winner overall, but precinct by precinct. Lange, an expert in elections who grew up in the city, has spent over a decade in left-leaning activism and has become a kind of well-known figure recently for his thorough analyses into city data and polling.

He published his extremely precise forecast map – which correctly forecast that the progressive candidate was victorious although missing Andrew Cuomo’s solid showing – on his Substack, the Narrative War. He possesses a talent for witty coinages. He highlighted, as an example, the divide between the progressive stronghold, running from one neighborhood to Bushwick to a third locale, where he predicted (correctly) that the left-wing candidate would triumph by huge margins, and the “capitalist corridor” on affluent parts of Manhattan. There, “the Free Press and financial newspapers surpass the New York Times” in audience and most voters favored Cuomo, who ran as a conservative-courting independent.

Election Night Trends and Surprises

What was your election night?

It was necessary since they were dropping around 200,000 ballots into the system frequently! I felt somewhat anxious initially: Mamdani led the early vote by 12 points, but came two big batches of ballots that came in after that and his lead went from 12 to 8%. I was worried.

You know, there was a world in which election day turned out kind of poorly for Mamdani, where the opponent was going to end up essentially increasing his support from the earlier contest. However the winner added half a million votes to his primary coalition, and that’s a huge reason why he won. He went out and greatly broadened his support from the first round.

Coalition Building

Where did Mamdani get additional support from?

He assembled the alliance that the left always wanted to build: diverse racially, it’s young, it’s renters and it’s people squeezed by affordability. He gained considerably with Black and Hispanic voters, working- and middle-class voters, compared to the primary. Plus he boosted his base of liberal progressives, youthful radicals, and Muslims and south Asians. Victory required without expanding his appeal.

He created the coalition that the left long aimed for: diverse, young, renters and people struggling with costs

Additionally, there were some Trump/Mamdani voters – is this significant?

It’s definitely a genuine phenomenon, confined to Hispanic laborers, south Asians and Islamic voters. Voters in immigrant strongholds that supported the former president last year backed the progressive this year. But I wouldn’t say he was winning over white working-class voters and Maga voters.

Turnout and Impact

One of the big stories of the election was the sky-high participation. Who did that help?

Both sides. Participation was much greater than I had expected. I figured it could exceed two million, but it reached 2.3M – that is a huge number of participants. Existed a substantial opposition group, energized, but the Mamdani base was also motivated, and that sufficed to win.

You forecasted he’d get over half the ballots. Is he on course for that?

Currently you would say he’s favored to get over 50%. He has 50.4% but there’s still around 200K ballots uncounted as of Wednesday morning. So I don’t think certain, but I think probable, and I hope he achieves it because afterwards no one can say the Republican was a disruptor.

GOP Decline

Curtis Sliwa, the conservative contender, was another surprise. His support completely collapsed.

He didn’t win a single precinct in any area. Including one neighborhood in Staten Island, which is like an highly conservative area. That really was unexpected. The independent kept very white areas, very wealthy areas and devout communities, and then added many Republicans on Staten Island who had a high participation. I believe there was a lot of tactical voting by the Republicans. They were doing it prior to the former president endorsed for Cuomo, but it assisted. It might have changed the outcome unless Mamdani’s coalition failed to expand.

Progressive Strongholds

Regarding your often-discussed left-wing base – was support for Mamdani overwhelming in those parts of Brooklyn and Queens?

I think existed a little dilution of the progressive zone in some areas like neighborhoods that have older Caucasian residents. In Astoria, for example, the Greek landlords and residents all went for Cuomo. Thus there was some opposition. But no, largely the commie corridor is another huge reason why Zohran prevailed – he was polling between high percentages in Fort Greene, Clinton Hill and Bushwick.

Jewish Voters

Prior to the election there was coverage on if the candidate was gaining ground with Jewish New Yorkers. Any indication that he succeeded?

Exist areas with a lot of secular and more progressive-leaning Jews – such as specific locales – where he performed strongly. However in the wealthy Jewish communities like the Manhattan area, his Middle East stance was influential in those places. Likewise in the more middle-class Jewish areas like Queens neighborhoods, or Bronx areas – they favored the independent. Plus, there are Jewish immigrants from the former Soviet Union in the borough, they were strongly Cuomo. Therefore I don’t know if existed crazy narrative-busters here, but he did hold more progressive Jewish neighborhoods and even parts of the another locale with large leads.

Political Impact

Has Mamdani rewritten what the city means politically? Will commie corridor serve as a springboard for leftwing candidates?

Yes, it’s not accidental that key figures from the left come from a handful of neighborhoods in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. I believe that we’ll see more of that – candidates will emerge from these areas to be elevated nationally.

However I think that each urban center in America could develop their own commie corridor. Urban places are the epicenters of leftwing power in America – since they’re young, tenancy is common and they represent locales where people are crushed by the inequalities we face.