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At first, Trump gave the impression to take a strong position on the Ukrainian conflict. After delivering warnings of "significant repercussions" during the summer if Russia's president persisted blocking truce talks, Trump finally imposed considerable restrictions on Russia's two largest energy firms, Rosneft and Lukoil. This move seriously impacted Putin's ability to finance his war effort in Ukraine.

But, through his recently unveiled 28-point peace plan for Ukraine, that was developed by US and Russian diplomats excluding Ukrainian or EU participation, he has apparently returned to his favorable to Russia approach.

Favoring Aggression

The former president's proposal would in practice benefit the Russian leader for attacking a sovereign nation while putting the country's political freedom in peril. Despite strong statements that "Ukraine's independence will be affirmed", large portions of the initiative actually compromise that same autonomy. What represents a Moscow's wish would likely be a disaster for Ukraine.

Demonstrating his business past, Trump persists to treat the Ukrainian conflict as a basic border issue, implying giving Russia a part of Ukrainian land will satisfy the ruler. Yet, Putin's military campaign is not only about occupying a damaged swath of industrial-devastated territory in Ukraine's east. Instead, it's about the nation's political system – and the Russian leader's obvious goal to weaken it so it stops functions as an attractive example for the Russia's population of the accountable government that his deepening autocracy denies them.

Land Giveaways

While keeping in position the currently divided oblasts of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, the proposal would force Ukraine to abandon the whole Donetsk province. Aside from benefiting Russia with territory that its forces have been unsuccessful to capture in exceeding a ten years of fighting, this concession would leave Ukrainian defensive positions dangerously compromised.

The area is the place of Ukraine's well-known "stronghold system", the entrenched protective structures that constitute a key obstacle to Russian advances. Trump would have the Ukrainian military surrender these defenses, giving Russian forces a unobstructed path to Kyiv if he eventually opt to renew the war.

Military Limitations

Furthermore, in a move that would enable additional hostilities more feasible for the Russian military, Trump would require the nation to cut the scale of its troops from their existing large number personnel to a limit of this lower number. Importantly, Trump's proposal places no such constraints on Russian forces.

In what appears as a gesture to Russia's attempts to depict Ukraine's legitimate administration as extremists, Trump's proposal declares: "Every extremist doctrine and actions must be rejected and banned." Seemingly to underscore this aspect, it insists that "The nation will hold political contests in this period" of a truce. At the same time, the proposal imposes no condition that the Russian leader endanger his authoritarian rule by conducting democratic processes in his own country.

Security Commitments

To be sure, the plan makes the Russian Federation commit not to "enter neighboring countries" and to "establish in legislation its policy of non-aggression towards Europe and Ukraine". However taking into account that the Russian leadership has broken equivalent treaties in the history – such as the 1994 agreement, in which the Russian government committed to respect the nation's borders in exchange for relinquishing its former Soviet nuclear arsenal, and the previous peace deals, in which Moscow agreed to a ceasefire and a return of captured territory in the region to the government – why should we have confidence in this commitment now?

For this reason Ukraine has been so determined on external protection assurances. While the initiative warns of a "decisive unified armed reaction" in case the Russian Federation renew its military campaign, and provides that "Ukraine will receive dependable defense commitments", the details vary from vague to alarming. The initiative would not only block the nation accession to NATO but also prevent member states from stationing forces on Ukraine's soil, thus preventing the security presence, presumptively led by European powers, on which Ukraine had been relying to prevent Putin from replenishing his diminished military, re-equipping, and reinvading.

International Response

An additional supplementary accord according to sources would provide the nation with a similar to NATO protection assurance, in which any subsequent "significant, deliberate, and sustained military assault" by the Russian Federation on the country "shall be regarded as an act of war jeopardizing the peace and security of the Western nations." This implies a armed reaction. Yet in contrast to a powerful Ukraine's armed forces – Ukraine's most reliable protection against future hostilities – the credibility of the supplementary deal would depend on the willingness of alliance members, like the US administration, to react through arms to Russia's aggression, something they have {not